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Barack Obama

 

President Obama vs. Candidate Obama

Los Angeles, Feb. 12, 2012
Vijay Vaswani

Although the fight for the GOP nomination is far from over, the slightest, statistical improvement in the economy is helping President Obama. Even though Rasmussen, Gallup and other pollsters have his approval rating around 48, 49%, his “favorable” rating is slightly higher. The latter measures the “likeability” of the candidate, while the former measures the job-handling of the nation. The difference between the two is significant, as many undecided and independent citizens vote merely on their view of the candidate. As Obama’s favorable rating is higher, it shows that his character and individuality play a prominent role in people’s perception of him. In 2011 though, Obama hit the lowest approval rating of his presidency. While the economy remains the pivotal issue of 2012, if he can return to his former “candidate” self, he can certainly make a stronger showing.

All of the current polls have him neck-in-neck against the GOP field, and they show him trailing against a general GOP candidate. These polls however, show him as President Obama vs. the field, not as candidate Obama and there is a difference. There are correlations between him as President and the healthcare bill, Solyndra, the unemployment rate, the number of foreclosures etc., and no matter the generic, Democratic opinion, Republicans see it as a disappointing and unforgiving story. Still, “candidate” Obama is a different person. Candidate Obama is the one who can express his ideologies (for change) eloquently and charismatically. Not only does he have style and a step in his walk, but he knows how to get the audience excited, involved and inspired. Candidate Obama is the true, powerful campaigner as seen in 2007/2008. Not only does he know how to give a moving speech, but he understands how to motivate fundraisers to his cause. Deep down he knows exactly how and when to play his cards, but specifically which ones to show or conceal. Candidate Obama received the vast majority of Independent and some moderate-conservative votes, but President Obama has lost them.

In politics, it is all about how a candidate portrays himself in the light of a given platform. If one runs on their true political record vs. their promises, it can be damaging and might even cost them the election. As politicians might run into problems with certain issues in their record, if they run on the promises (rather intangibles) of hope, change, peace, etc., they can obtain more votes than their “approval” ratings show.  For example, running (away) from his record as Massachusetts’ Governor, GOP candidate Mitt Romney knew he couldn’t use his semi-moderate tone to win over conservatives; he knew he had to sound, act and ooze conservative values. Therefore, he made his business and the private sector a central point, and focused on the free market system. Today, he is doing a fine job running on his promises vs. his record, as his rhetoric filled with smaller government, Reganomics and Tea Party-esque values are clearly helping him in the polls.

In general, winning and losing an election all depend on a politician’s approach to a situation; moreover, phrasing, diction, and emphasis are all imperative tricks. Following this motto, GOP candidate Newt Gingrich handled his ex-wife’s comment on his alleged open-marriage remarkably. Not only did he turn this huge negative into a positive, but he used these tactics, energized the crowd and swayed majority of conservatives in South Carolina his way.
Subsequently, looking at the rest of the GOP field, mudslinging and character assassinating seem to be the name of the game. With so much negative advertising in some of these crucial, swing states (Florida, Iowa and Nevada), their favorable ratings are tanking while Obama’s is persistent.

At the end, it really doesn’t matter which candidate wins the Republican nomination, as they will tie Obama to his record. The eventual nominee and the party will paint him as a President who came in with a whopping 7.8% unemployment rate and left it at just that. They will show that under his watch the economy was downgraded as well as jobs were lost from Obamacare. They will show him weak on foreign relations and make the argument that he is not a true ally to Israel. No matter if these are full truths or not, exaggerated or not, they will do what oppositions (Democrats & Republicans) do, use statistics and rhetoric to their advantage.

As Romney and Gingrich have shown in the primaries, Obama must also take advantage of the political climate, and morph back into his “candidate” self. With Congress at a historic low approval rating of 13%, he will need to continue to beat them down. He must appear to stay above the prey, look like he’s running for the first time and not on his record, but against the “do-nothing” congress and status quo. Although President Obama is somewhat liked today, it’s his 2008 portrayal that America loved. If he can continue to rally around this strategy of 2008 and bring his character and personality back to the forefront, his “favorability” will continue to rise and thus, it will translate into votes.

If the economy does improve, not only will Obama’s “approval” numbers climb, but the message of strong economic reform from the GOP will diminish. However, if it economy tapers off and the unemployment numbers slip even just slightly, his standing will collapse. It all comes down to who shows up at this election: President Obama or candidate Obama. Both are liked, but one has some baggage and the other the passion for “hope” and “change”. President Obama may be in danger, but candidate Obama, the one who beat the Clinton machine and the Republican establishment has a clear shot to become president again

 

 

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