Low Volatility in Mortgage Rates, But Next Week Could be Very Different

We've talked a lot about why the Fed rate cut will have no additional positive impact on mortgage rates next week.  Everything the market can already reasonably foresee about what the Fed might do is already reflected in today's mortgage rates. In other words, much of the sharp mortgage rate decline seen in recent months is simply a reflection of the growing odds for lower Fed Funds Rates in the near-ter...Read More

Last Week's Refinancing Surge Quickly Fades

Two weeks ago, we saw a sudden surge in refinancing activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that, during the week ended August 9, its Refinancing Index soared by almost 35 percent reaching its highest level in over two years, and refinancing represented nearly half of all mortgage applications that week. A bubble? Perhaps, but a short-lived one...Read More

Why mortgage rates will probably keep falling before the Fed cuts rates

The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates starting in September. But expectations for the Fed to move have already driven mortgage rates lower, and borrowing costs could fall further ahead of the central bank taking action. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is now at its lowest level since early February, with data from Freddie Mac last week...Read More

This is when you can expect mortgage rates to go down — and why you should buy before a recession hits

In recent years, mortgage rates in the US have soared to their highest levels in more than two decades, leaving many potential homebuyers and sellers wary. The Federal Reserve’s efforts to combat languishing inflation have played a significant role, as the central bank raised interest rates 11 times from 2022 to 2023...Read More

Dave Ramsey Says To Pay Off Your Mortgage Early– But Should You ?

Dave Ramsey, the renowned financial guru, has long been a proponent of financial discipline and savvy money management. This can include paying off your mortgage early, but only under specific financial circumstances. There are pros and cons to paying extra on your monthly mortgage payments to shorten the timeline for how long you’ll have to keep paying them, but it’s not always the best money move...Read More

Bonds Crushed By Modestly Higher CPI

When it comes to big ticket economic events, the average anticipatory headline tends to be a bit more dramatic than the actual outcome.  It's our way of preparing the audience for what's possible even though reality only occasionally explores the depths of those possibilities.  Then there are days like today where a meager 0.1% beat...Read More

Treasury Auction Relief Rally and Month-End Support Influence

With Thursday being a half day before a 3.5 day weekend, it's entirely reasonable to suspect month-end trading helped the bond market today.  There's never a great way to know if it will help or hurt, but it's a common hindsight conclusion when markets are moving without any other salient provocation.  Speaking of provocation, the 7yr Treasury auction provoked a bit more buying....Read More

Automation, Pre-Approval, QC Products, Rent vs. Buy, and Increasing Paperwork Requirements for Lenders

Saturday was George Thorogood’s 74th birthday, and fans know that he wrote the classic tale of rent collection, land ladies, and payment avoidance. Time flies, but that may change. We’re faced with an actual five-day workweek this week, with no Federal holidays until Memorial Day, May 27th, two months away! Yikes. Here in Houston...Read More

Surging Interest Rates Cause Mortgage Applications to Hit a Standstill

Higher mortgage rates hindered application activity during the week ended February 9. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier although it did gain 2.0 percent on an unadjusted basis..Read More

Reflecting on the New Year's Challenges: Was Weakness Inevitable?

Hindsight is frequently 20/20 when discussing recent market movement and this morning's weakness is an example that's worth considering.  Heading into the second half of December, our advice was that none of the movement in bonds should be taken as indicative of the market's true intentions.  We also frequently noted inexplicable strength combined with low volume.  Now this morning, we're right back....Read More

October Sees Homebuyers Retreat from New Homes Amidst Surge in Mortgage Rates

Higher mortgage rates sidelined demand for newly built homes in October. Sales of new homes decreased 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 679,000 units last month from September’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of 719,000, according to the Census Bureau on Monday. That was much lower than Bloomberg consensus expectations of 725,000 units for October but still 17.7% higher than a year ago...Read More

Mortgage Rates Barely Budge at Long-Term Highs

In terms of day-over-day changes, today's mortgage rate movement was forgettable.  The average borrower wouldn't see much of a difference from yesterday's rates at the average lender.  In both cases, those rates would be at or near the highest levels since 2001. The underlying bond market experienced a bit more drama.  The early morning hours actually pointed to slightly lower rates, but those dreams were shattered by lunchtime......Read More

Why so many Americans feel trapped in their homes by their low-rate mortgages

Bob Wood, 66, has been thinking of selling his home in Mobile, Alabama. The finance professor and his wife, Terri, purchased the 5,000-square-foot house with a pool nearly a decade ago. “It’s probably time to downsize,” he said. They would also like to be closer to their grandchildren in Tennessee. And yet, “we are in the 10th year of a 3.125% 15-year fixed mortgage,” he said. They don’t want to move now and give up that low rate to buy at a higher rate......Read More

Mortgage rate soars to 7.22% after strong economic data

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage hit 7.22% on Thursday, according to Mortgage News Daily. That’s the highest point since early November.Mortgage rates follow loosely the yield on the 
10 year Treasury , which leapt higher following a much stronger-than-expected employment report from ADP......Read More

Mortgage Rates Approaching 7% Again

There are some broad rate surveys/indices that show 30yr fixed mortgage rates under 6.5% or close to it, but it's a bit of a mystery as to how such a thing could be justified--even after accounting for the typical lag between weekly surveys and our daily records. Indeed, most of the past week saw the average top tier rate at 6.625% or higher for the average lender.  And as of today, we're painfully close to 7.0% again.  To be fair, we were already close to 7.0% on Friday.....Read More

Mortgage Rates Jump Back Up to Friday's Levels

Mortgage rates made substantial gains yesterday as financial markets underwent a classic flight to safety.  This involves selling riskier assets like stocks and buying fixed-income assets like bonds.  When investors buy bonds, it puts downward pressure on interest rates, all other things being equal. The flight-to-safety began with the 2nd biggest bank failure in history late last week.  It's continuation made sense in light of the 3rd biggest bank failure over the weekend......Read More

Mortgage Rates Still in Good Shape After Fed Minutes

There are Fed Announcements, which involve rate hikes/cuts, press conferences, and updated rate forecasts after a 2 day meeting among Fed members.  And then there are the "minutes" from that meeting.  The minutes are released 3 weeks after the big announcement and they simply offer some more context to the rate hike/cut, etc. Today was a Fed minutes day--not a "Fed Day," per se........Read More

Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start Holiday-Shortened Week

As much as it may seem that financial markets are driven by machines and code, human beings are still critical to day to day functioning.  This is especially true of the mortgage-specific corners of the financial market. During winter holidays, it becomes increasingly apparent that something is "different."  Those differences can manifest themselves in different ways but one of the most apparent is with higher volatility......Read More

Netflix’s Next Real Estate Star on the Future of the Luxury Market

Mauricio Umansky, husband of “Real Housewives” star Kyle Richards, has his own show following his brokerage, The Agency. He offers a peek inside the occu-soap “Buying Beverly Hills” and makes predictions for high-end housing in 2023......Read More

Here's Just How Difficult It's Getting for Home Buyers

Mortgage rates, now at a 20-year high, combined with inflation and stock market volatility are causing housing markets to soften quickly. The next several months will be a critical test for the economy, experts say.Consumers are facing economic pressure from every angle—rising mortgage rates, stubbornly high inflation, a battered stock market—and the financial environment keeps getting worse for aspiring homeowners who want to buy........Read More

FHA Moves to Include On-Time Rental Payments for First-Time Buyers

The Federal Housing Administration published a letter to lenders on Tuesday urging them to consider including a borrower’s positive rental payment history when applying for FHA-insured financing. The move is believed to be a boost for first-time home buyers to help to improve their credit scores when applying for a mortgage, the memo ....Read More

Yun: Slowing Inflation Suggests Mortgage Rates Have Topped Out

Inflation eased slightly in July, which could bode well for the housing market in the months ahead, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS®. Overall, inflation slowed from 9.1% in June to 8.5% in July, but prices for food and rent continued to climb, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index showed Wednesday........Read More

Higher Mortgage Rates Haven't Slowed Home Price Growth – Yet

Mortgage rates have fallen by half a point since peaking in late June, according to Freddie Mac. Still, the average 30-year fixed rate remains 2 1/2 points higher than it was at the same time last year, which continues to pour cold water on the once-sizzling housing market....Read More

Rapid Rise in Mortgage Rates Stalls

The quick rise in mortgage rates over the last few weeks is taking a pause. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.7% this week, dropping from last week’s 5.81%, according to Freddie Mac. Still, rates remain well above where they were a year ago, when they averaged below 3%. Higher rates have been sending shock...... Read More

Mortgage Rates Drop From Recent Highs

After weeks of rising rates, mortgage rates are now falling. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.10% this week, Freddie Mac reports. “Mortgage rates decreased for the second week in a row due to multiple headwinds that the economy is facing,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Despite the recent moderation in rates, the housing market has clearly slowed, and the deceleration is spreading to other segments of the economy, such as consumer spending on durable goods.”......Read More

Mortgage refinance demand plunges 14%, as interest rates spike higher

A sharp increase in mortgage interest rates is taking its toll on loan demand, especially refinances. Total mortgage application volume fell 8.1% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.....Read More

Mortgage applications drop to lowest level in over 2 years

Climbing mortgage rates are hitting both potential homebuyers and refinance candidates. Total mortgage applications decreased 13.1% last week to the lowest level since December 2019, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Applications to refinance dropped 15% weekly and were 56% lower than one year ago.....Read More

What will the 2022 housing market look like? It could ‘come back down to sanity’

The Covid-19 pandemic upended the home-buying process. Historically-low mortgage rates coupled with an inventory shortage created a red hot market, with houses selling within hours of being listed, often for well over asking price.........Read More

Brief drop in mortgage rates causes sudden surge in refinancing

A brief drop in mortgage rates, due to the first news of the omicron variant, caused mortgage refinance demand to rise dramatically last week. But it will likely be short-lived. The rate drop wasn’t all that dramatic when looking at the weekly average of the 30-year fixed......Read More

German central bank warns of overblown property prices with the problem spreading

Germany’s central bank warned Thursday about skewed valuations in the housing market, calling it a “specific vulnerability” as property prices continue to soar. “We have basically seen all indicators — prices, credit — those indicators kept increasing in Germany and you don’t really see a big effect of the pandemic,” Claudia Buch, vice-president at the Bundesbank said......Read More

Mortgage demand falls as rates rise to highest level since July

Higher interest rates took some recent wind out of the sails in the mortgage market. After gains the previous week, total mortgage application volume fell 1.1% last week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate.....Read More

As home prices rise, here’s what buyers can do to land a deal

In this red-hot real estate market, it’s tough for buyers to land a deal. Supply is low, which is pushing prices higher. The median price of an existing home sold in March was $329,100. That’s a 17.2% increase from March 2020. Yet there is some good news. New listings were up for the second week in a row, increasing 40% over last year, which is right when the pandemic hit, according to Realtor.com........Read More

US Mortgage Rates Steady to Higher; 30-Year at 3.02%

Ready to book your summer rental on Nantucket? You’re too late

Nantucket, Massachusetts, a historic summer vacation destination, became a year-round refuge last year, thanks to the coronavirus pandemic. The run on real estate on the tiny, tony island is now causing a shortage of both homes for sale and rentals, and prices for both are going through the roof. ....Read More

MBS RECAP: Bonds Push Back Against AM Weakness, But Risks Remain

Yields were breaking higher as the domestic session began with traders citing the European Central Bank (ECB) as the primary source of motivation.  The ECB changed its stance on one of its bond buying programs in a way that leaves the door open for less accommodation....Read More

Home Price Index Continues to Grow at Record Pace

The rate of home price increases accelerated again in October from their already heightened pace. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said its House Price Index (HPI) rose 1.5 percent compared to September. This was down slightly from a 1.7 percent increase from August to September, however the annual increase jumped more than a point, from 9.1 percent in September to 10.2 percent........Read More

What to know about buying a house while you have student loan debt

One of the most important factors that lenders consimder when evaluating you for a mortgage is your debt, including any student loans you must pay back. “Student loans can affect a consumer’s ability to get a mortgage because they are a liability that factors into your debt-to-income ratio,” ..........Read More

Pandemic's Disproportionate Effects on Housing Supply, Affordability

The Urban Institute says that homes categorized as low priced, that is in the bottom 20 percent of the distribution, appreciated 126 percent between the turn of the century and the end of 2019. During that same 20-year period, those in the top 20 percent of the price distribution increased only 87 percent. An analysis of 285 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) by Jung Hyun Choi, John Walsh, and Laurie Goodman found that rapid employment growth.......Read More