POLL: GILL LEADS MCNERNEY ON SECOND BALLOT
LODI, CA, March 30, 2012
A poll completed last week reveals that incumbent Congressman Jerry McNerney (D-Pleasanton) suffers from anemic support in the 9th Congressional District, where he faces a strong challenge from Lodi Republican Ricky Gill.
In a survey of 355 likely primary voters, summarized here, just 23 percent of those polled believed that McNerney deserves reelection, while 46 percent preferred a new representative.
On an initial ballot test, McNerney starts at only 35 percent and is closely followed by Gill, who stands at 26 percent despite significantly lower awareness of his name.
Moreover, after hearing the candidates' biographies and messages, those polled would vote for Gill over McNerney, 40 percent to 32 percent--despite the fact that the sample included six percent more Democrats than Republicans.
Separately, county registrars' data show that the Democratic registration advantage in the 9th District has narrowed considerably over a nine-month period. While voter information firm Political Data Inc. reported a Democratic advantage of 9.7 percent in July 2011, the registrars' files show the advantage has now shrunk to just 7.8 percent.